Moving the Goalposts on Flattening the Curve

by Erick Erickson: I asked over the weekend if anyone knew any of the champions of "herd immunity" who'd gone out to get the virus. I actually really was curious. But my question was met with outrage as if I was insulting people. I actually really am curious. I hear so many conservatives advocate herd immunity, oblivious to what it would entail, I presumed some had. Thankfully, they have not.

I say that because the model for herd immunity has been Sweden, even as the Swedes deny they are pushing herd immunity. Well, things are not going well in Sweden. They have a 12% mortality rate and, per capita, have way more infections than the United States — in fact, the sixth worse on the planet right now. All the worst hit places on the planet are in Western Europe. Yay socialized medicine!

My point isn't to gloat on any of this. I think "herd immunity" is what a lot of people have gravitated towards with no other solution to counter shelter-in-place. It's just a bad argument. What has been a good argument is shelter-in-place to flatten the curve. Yes, it would make the virus hang around longer, but it would give our hospitals time to prepare, allow the full production of PPE, and ramp up testing capacity nationwide. We needed to do it because we are facing a virus that is more deadly and more contagious than the flu.

All the people saying "it's just a flu" really are talking out of their asses, to be blunt. They are in the minority, know it, and so are screaming more loudly. They are also fighting yesterday's fight.

The fight that must be fought now is on reopening. We inarguably flattened the curve. The virus is inarguably going to be around. So how do we reopen?

Unfortunately, many of the very same people who demanded we shelter in place to flatten the curve are moving the goalposts. We have gone from flattening the curve to "crushing the curve" or eradicating the virus before going outside.

The virus is not going away. Flattening the curve was never about stopping people from dying. It was about avoiding an overwhelmed hospital infrastructure. We have had time to prepare resources and hospitals. It is time to reopen.

This Sean Trende piece really captures my thinking and I regret I didn't write it. He is spot on.This seems to reflect a wider phenomenon of people being driven into "teams" regarding the shutdown. We've become polarized on the issue, and indeed this polarization is beginning to reflect our underlying politics. This is an unwelcome development. One of the dynamics about team sports is an inability to see the other side's point of view; indeed, that is in many ways the point of teams. As this virus develops, flexibility will be crucial in determining how well we come out of it, and a willingness to listen to the viewpoints of those we don't generally agree with is probably the most important trait we can have. But, as with so many other things, that seems to be one more fatality resulting from this virus.----------------------------
Erick Erickson is editor of The Resurgent and host of the Erick Erickson Show on WSB Radio. He has been both a CNN and Fox News contributor and appears regularly on NBC News' Meet the Press and HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher. Erick is a lawyer by training and is working on a degree in theology.

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