Arkansas' All-Time Record Low Unemployment Rate

by Greg Kaza, Arkansas Policy Foundation: "The drop in the Arkansas' unemployment rate to a record low is consistent with the duration of the economic expansion, which entered a record 11th year this month." Policy Foundation, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, July 20, 2019.¹

Arkansas' unemployment rate hit consecutive all-time record lows this Summer, declining to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July, preliminary jobs data from the state Department of Workforce Services (ADWS) shows.²

The Arkansas unemployment rate was lower than the U.S. rate both months.³

Record Economic Expansion
The U.S. economy started an expansion in June 2009 when the Great Recession ended, the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge explained in a 2010 research memo.⁴ The current expansion set a record in July when it entered its 11th year of growth. The previous record (10 years) occurred between March 1991 and March 2001, according to the NBER's business cycle chronology.⁵

Record Number Employed in Arkansas
There were 1,275,300 Arkansans employed in June, an all-time record, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics records show.⁶ By contrast, only 1,150,000 Arkansans were employed in February 2010 when payroll employment reached a trough this cycle.

The largest subsector gains in July--800 new jobs--occurred in the professional, scientific and technical jobs component. The Policy Foundation noted the subsector bears watching as Arkansas works to diversify this knowledge-based part of its economy.⁷
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Foot Note Links
1.  "Jobless rate in state falls to 3.5%, lowest on record." Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. July 20, 2019

2. http://www.discover.arkansas.gov/Portals/194/Publications/Press%20Release/2019/Press%20Release-%20July%202019.pdf?ver=2019-08-16-082405-110

3. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

4. https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

5. https://www.nber.org/cycles.html

6. https://www.bls.gov/sae/#data

7. "Unemployment rate in state dips to 3.4%." Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. August 17, 2019
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Greg Kaza is the director of the Arkansas Policy Foundation.

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