This is Actually Really Good News for President Trump

by Erick Erickson: It is funny how ABC News is reporting its new polling on President Trump. Follow along here.

Bolstered by a strong economy, Donald Trump reached the highest job approval rating of his career in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll and runs competitively for re-election against four of five possible Democratic contenders. Yet he remains broadly unpopular across personal and professional measures, marking his vulnerabilities in the 2020 election.

Forty-four percent of Americans approve of Trump's overall job performance, up a slight 5 percentage points from April and 2 points better than his peak early in his presidency. Still, 53% disapprove, keeping him at majority disapproval continuously for his first two and a half years in office, a record for any president in modern polling.Sounds not great, right? Sure, it is good for this President, but 44% isn't great.

Except that's not really the number.

44% represents all adult Americans, not actual voters.

Look at registered voters and the number climbs to 47%. You'd never know that based on this ABC News report, which covers how registered voters would respond to Donald Trump vs. a Democrat, but never notes that 47% of registered voters approve of the President's job performance.

ABC News even downplays its own polling that shows President Trump would beat a socialist leaning Democrat by six points. Just look at how they report it.


Another question tests Trump against "a Democratic candidate who you regard as a socialist" –relevant given the Republicans' stated aim of applying that label to their eventual opponent. Among the general public the race is tied among Trump vs. a perceived socialist; among registered voters it goes +6 to Trump, 49% to 43%, not a significant difference.Six points is a pretty damn significant difference in a 50-50 nation.

But there's something else missing in all of this.

All voters approve of the President with only 44% support. Registered voters approve of the President with 47% support. It is widely known and agreed that as the pool of voters moves into the likely voter category, the number will show a gain for Republicans nationally. So that actually puts the President at or on the verge of 50% support among those who would vote in the election overall.

And that really makes sense given the supposedly non-significant six point swing to the President if a socialist oriented Democrat gets the nomination.

Now ask yourself — if a Democrat were President, which numbers would ABC News be highlighting. Would they highlight 44% of adult Americans or would they highlight 47% of registered voters? My bet is they'd focus on the higher number. But Trump.

This is really good news for the President. Add to it the economic numbers and the President has a clear path to re-election just as the Democrats start veering further left down the path ABC News shows will lead them to disaster.
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Erick Woods Erickson (@EWErickson) is a politically conservative American blogger who hosts the radio show Atlanta's Evening News with Erick Erickson, broadcast on 750 WSB (AM). Erickson blogs at The Resurgent.

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