Raila weighs five options ahead of 2017

Opposition chief Raila Odinga is weighing tough options ahead of 2017, including crafting a new coalition, as divisions within the opposition deepen.

The ground and allegiances are shifting, cracks are opening, there's grumbling and rebellion and Jubilee is making inroads in Cord turf.

Raila has become a fireman, dousing distracting flareups of resistance.

All three co-principals want to be the Cord flag bearer.

Raila has at least five options:

* Keep the coalition intact and run for President;

* Relinquish his fourth stab at the presidency, act the elder statesman and back another candidate — Cord co-principals Moses Wetang'ula (New Ford Kenya) or Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) or Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress);

* Form a new coalition and run for President as its head;

* Go it alone as ODM chief, aiming to become either leader of the majority or minority in Parliament.

* Hang up his boots, quit politics and become a gentleman farmer at his Opoda spread in Bondo. This is the least desirable and Raila isn't there yet.

Raila and his think tanks were scrabbling for answers last week after Wetangu'la publicly rubbished his latest bid for President.

Warhorse Raila doesn't stand a chance against President Uhuru Kenyatta, he said.

Wetangu'la's statement on July 21, which Raila allies say "was meant to hurt", lifted the lid on political tension and intrigues threatening to dismember Cord.

The Star has established the former Prime Minister is actively exploring at least four options excluding the gentleman farmer.
Cord's three co-principals have formed a five-man team to decide through polling the most popular presidential candidate and running mate.

"The assumption is the most popular candidate should fly the coalition flag in 2017," a source familiar with the strategy told the Star.

The team spearheading the poll includes Senators Johnstone Muthama (Machakos), James Orengo (Siaya), Boni Khalwale (Kakamega) and MPs Chris Wamalawa (Kiminini) and Timothy Bosire (Kitutu Masaba).

However, Khalwale has publicly said an independent poll has rated Wetangu'la and Musyoka as the strongest candidates to unseat Uhuru.

"The pair of Kalonzo and Wetangu'la — irrespective of who's the running mate and who's the presidential candidate — scores 45 per cent," Khalwale said on Jeff Koinange Live on KTN on Wednesday night. He did not say who sponsored the poll.

He said Raila-Kalonzo scored 44 per cent, while Raila-Wetangu'la scored a paltry 11 per cent.

Last week, Wetangu'la suggested Raila, now 71, should call it quits, become the statesman and support him and Kalonzo — that infuriated ODM supporters.

"In politics, there's the doctrine of diminishing returns. There's also the doctrine of voter fatigue. People vote, you win, it's stolen, you win, it's stolen. They begin to imagine, even if we vote, it will be the same thing," Wetangu'la said.

Previous polls have, however, consistently rated Raila as a clear favourite, surpassing his co-principals by a huge margin, only coming in second to the President.

An Ipsos poll last month indicated 28 per cent of Kenyans would elect Raila, while only 2 per cent would vote for Kalonzo and Wetangu'la.

Some analysts say Kalonzo and Wetang'ula are unfair in failing to give concrete reasons why Raila should not face Uhuru once again, as he's the most popular among them.

"It must be very offensive to Raila, as it was in 2007, to insinuate somehow he is undeserving, though he is the senior principal, has done more work and paid a greater price in the struggle," political analyst Benji Ndolo said.

During the KTN interview, however, Khalwale appeared to contradict himself, saying Raila should not be blamed if he declines to endorse either Wetangu'la or Kalonzo.

"If Raila finds it difficult saying Kalonzo tosha (Kalonzo is capable) or Wetangu'la tosha, then Kenyans shouldn't blame him.

Wetangu'la and Kalonzo should not blame him. They should blame themselves. It means because of his [Raila's] vast experience, he has not seen it in them that they deserve the tosha," Khalwale said.

Those familiar with Raila's game plan say his second option is to craft a new coalition, if Wetang'ula, Kalonzo or both bolt.
It's not clear whom the opposition supreme is looking at.

However, Raila recently met ANC's Mudavadi, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, former Lands CS Charity Ngilu and Kanu secretary general Nick Salat.

Cord's close ties with Kanu became evident when it donated one of its slots on the IEBC Joint Select Committee to the Independence party. Kanu's nominee, Mogotio MP Hellen Sambili, rejected the offer.

Raila also works closely with Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto, who is Deputy President William's Ruto's chief critic in the Rift Valley.

On Wednesday, Salim Lone, Raila's former aide and respected political adviser, paid glowing tribute to Karua, strongly hinting his former boss could be interested in Karua.

"Martha is not perfect, a category [perfection] to which I and most people I know also belong. But she is committed to democratising and reforming Kenya, and she will bring serious leadership qualities to the very broad coalition we must create if we are to drive the corrupt Jubilee out of office next year," he said.

Raila, Karua and Mudavadi met in the US where they are attending Hilary Clinton's Democratic nomination for president in Philadelphia.

The former Prime Minister's third option is to quit the presidential race without backing anybody, while building ODM as Parliament's majority party.

The Cord leader is said to believe proper nominations can give Cord a clean sweep in Nyanza, Western, Coast and a majority of seats in Nairobi and Northeastern.

Source