The world's greatest vacuum is the "black hole" called the Middle East. This has been so for over 4000 years. Someone or some nation is always trying to conquer or control it. Some have temporarily, but not permanently, been in control. It always reverts to chaos.
Whether you agree or not with his plan, President George W. Bush tried to bring Democracy and western style freedom to Iraq and Afghanistan. When he left office, Iraq was stable. President Obama totally removed all American forces in Iraq in December of 2011 and almost all from Afghanistan by December 2014. Both countries began to deteriorate almost immediately.
The Arab Spring began in December 2010 to depose longstanding dictators. This eventually led to changes in the governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and others. Democracy was the people's goal; Muslim theocracy, Sharia Law and chaos was, for the most part what they eventually got.
After Egypt, under General Sisi, rid Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood, Obama treated Sisi as an enemy pushing them to seek military help from Russia.
Let's not forget the one sided Iranian nuclear deal. Our few remaining "allies" in the Middle East feel as if we abandoned them to an eventual nuclear Iran. They may now seek to obtain their own nuclear weapons.
The Syrian civil war began in the Spring of 2011. In August 2012, President Obama issued his "red line" to Syria about using chemical weapons. When they did use chemical weapons, he did nothing. Eventually, Russia brokered the deal for Syria to get rid of its chemical weapon stockpile. But civil war continued.
Al-Qaeda morphed into ISIS after 2013 and progressively conquered large parts of both Iraq and Syria with inroads into Afghanistan and Libya. Killing of other Muslims, Christians, Kurds and others became widespread along with unimaginable brutality, savagery and sexual slavery and rape. The United States, led by President Obama and the supposed sixty nation coalition, did very little except talk, talk, talk. Talk without significant action empowers aggressors and leads to a leadership vacuum that begs to be filled.
This has allowed Russia, who has a longstanding partnership with Syria, to step in to fill the void we left. Russia, along with Iran, Hezbollah and even China, are now doing more in just a few weeks than we have done in two years. Brilliantly, they will now attempt to destroy the opposition to Assad thereby protecting him and his government (Let's not forget, when we previously protected and helped our partners, we called ourselves heroes. When Putin protects and helps his partners, we call him evil). At the same time, they also must destroy ISIS in Syria and Iraq to protect the governments of Damascus and Baghdad or else their efforts will be for nothing.
If all is successful, Russia will now dominate much of the Middle East (as the U.S. used to) and its oil. This ultimately is their goal.
As much as I hate and fear the eventual outcome and I am not defending Putin's policies and actions, I can't blame Putin and Iran for their geopolitical maneuvering. I understand it. We might have done the same if the tables were reversed and we had a strong President. As Rahm Emanuel (and Winston Churchill) said, "Never let a good crisis go to waste" and Russia hasn't. President Obama just made it way too easy to pass up this opportunity. By now it is probably too late to do anything to stop Putin's actions short of war with Russia. I don't envy the next President. What realistic options will he or she have, especially with a downsized military?
We've already been warned to back off and not interfere with their military aggressiveness. If they do defeat ISIS, (remember, Russia and its allies don't fight with our civilized "rules of engagement"), we will reap the benefits of their time, energy, manpower and the financial cost to them (and it won't cost us an additional dime). But then we will have to deal with the new, expanded Middle East power players; Russia and Iran. And what does this mean to Israel?
A final warning: Russia should remember their defeat in Afghanistan against a much inferior fighting force during the 1980's. Also, even though the U.S. is the Big Satan and Israel the Little Satan, Russia for the most part is a secular, Godless country. To Muslims, they too are infidels. One day, Allah will turn his attention to them. By that time, Iran will have Nuclear Bombs and ICBM's to deliver them!! Russia, you will reap what you sow.
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Jack Sternberg, MD, is a retired medical doctor and Chairman, Garland County TEA Party Patriots in Arkansas, and a contributor to the ARRA News Service.
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