The Sanders phenomenon, so reminiscent of 2008, must make Hillary Clinton nervous. It should.
Bernie's stump speech is a thing of beauty. That said, it is not a joy forever.
Sanders is the only candidate, of either party, passionately connecting with working and middle income families over our greatest concern, economic well being. We are the most important voting bloc.
(Donald Trump is more of a provocateur. And he is good at it. The Huffington Post has moved its coverage of him to its Entertainment section.)
We working voters feel strangled by 15 years of economic stagnation (under one Republican and one Democratic administration). Sanders speaks directly into our frustration. He speaks in intimate terms. That's the beauty.
Why, then, not a joy forever? Many of Sanders's proposed solutions sound as if they could have been lifted from the late Hugo Chavez, a fellow socialist, who put Venezuela on the road to economic debacle.
Call Bernie's prescriptions "soft expropriation." He proposes to tell businesses what they have to pay their unskilled employees, what (expensive) benefits to provide, propounds extravagant subsidies for various classes (such as college students), opposes free trade, favors greatly expanded government sponsored health coverage and many other iconic progressive objectives. And soak the "rich" to pay for it all.
As reality-based progressive Michael Kinsley writes in the current issue of Vanity Fair:
Never? (Me neither.)
Jeb Bush is campaigning on an aspirational no-less-than-4% growth rate. That's great! We're waiting, however, to hear how he proposes to make this happen. And, moreover, make it happen for us.
Rand Paul has proposed a FLAT + VAT tax as "an economic steroid injection." Taking the tax code to the wood chipper provides some welcome specificity. (Full disclosure, one of my sons is a volunteer for the Rand Paul presidential campaign.) Sen. Paul nods to job creation, as in his announcement address: "I want to see millions of Americans back at work." He surely is sincere.
While admiring his noble crusade against government overreach, we patiently wait to hear him focus relentlessly and specifically, a la Sanders, on restoring vibrant prosperity to working people. That is the crux of the 2016 election.
GOP themes of economic growth are, to some extent, working. Just add relentless emphasis, some common touch, and a suite of free market policies targeted directly at benefiting labor (and not primarily by helping workers by advantaging investors). Any one of the leading candidates (and some outliers) could light right up. (As for Trump, a candidate best known for the smug declaration "You're fired!" perhaps is not optimally positioned as a champion of policies of job creation.)
Marco Rubio, along with Bush and Paul, is a top GOP contender. Sen. Rubio has, with Sen. Mike Lee, proposed, in broad strokes, a supply side Human Capital tax reform plan. Its flaws were thoroughly enumerated by Forbes.com's Opinions editor (and Rick Perry advisor) Avik Roy.
Notwithstanding some legitimate criticisms Rubio-Lee has two powerful virtues. These deserve to be taken into account. First, it has kitchen-table quality. Second, Rubio-Lee has the power to become a national conversation-starter for injecting the insights on human capital of the late Nobel Laureate Gary Becker into the Republican, and national, mind.
Becker's work, call it Human Capitalism, would enlarge a supply side canon which, while valid, has grown somewhat stale. Becker:
But such tangible forms of capital are not the only type of capital. Schooling, a computer training course, expenditures on medical care, and lectures on the virtues of punctuality and honesty are also capital. That is because they raise earnings, improve health, or add to a person's good habits over much of his lifetime.
. . . Education, training, and health are the most important investments in human capital.
Both Sen. Rubio's tax plan and Sen. Paul's worldview have the potential to unleash a powerful Human Capitalism supply side economic policy movement. A suite of policies founded in Human Capitalism could galvanize and mobilize millions of voters.
The leading Republican candidates now sound, on economics, as if they are all singing from the same spreadsheet. Bernie Sanders sings from a hymnal that brings music to our ears. His description of the problems caused by almost a generation of less than 2% annual growth clearly is a vote bonanza for him. Republicans can steal a page from his hymnal plus come up with real solutions.
Here is the Republicanese version of that message: A 1 % – 2% annual shortfall in economic growth may not sound like much. Yet over a 15 year stretch of "growth gap" (as so termed by JEC Vice Chairman Kevin Brady) that deficiency plunges your — and our collective — income by a quarter to a third (or more) from its potential.
To say it in Voterese: Would a 25%, 33%, or even 50% raise in your wages (and net worth) be a game changer? You bet! A healthy raise would solve much of the economic distress of working families. The evidence is clear that real growth would solve our problems far more credibly, and more equitably, than the tinny promise of letting Uncle Sam dictate.
As Bernie Sanders, clearly more fluent in Voterese than the Republicans, would, and in fact did, put it:
Our problems are real and Sen. Sanders gets that. Alas, the solutions Bernie proposes have a consistently terrible real world track record. Doctor Sanders: You earn an A+ for diagnosis and A+ for bedside manner. The largely toxic, possibly fatal, therapeutic regime you prescribe rates an F. Some cures are worse than the disease.
Not to put too fine a point on it, socialist, now euphemized as populist, nostrums have failed. We, the voters, know this. America describes itself to Gallup as two-to-one economically conservative.
A far-left-leaning litany will not take Sen. Sanders into the federal Public Housing Project at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. (Sen. Sanders appears to be clearing the way for Michael Bloomberg or another more economic centrist candidate safely to enter the race just as Sen. Eugene McCarthy sidelined President Lyndon Johnson.)
Bernie Sanders is not a viable Democratic nominee. Observing for the benefit of our former colonial masters, in the UK Telegraph, by its US Correspondent David Millward, in How radical Left-wing US presidential candidates have fared:
For more than a century left-wing tilts at the White House have not only ended in disappointment, but at times done considerable damage to others on the Liberal wing of American politics.
Yet his empathy and passion are great things.
In Winnie the Pooh, A.A Milne wrote:
"What does 'under the name' mean?" asked Christopher Robin.
"It means he had the name over the door in gold letters, and lived under it…."
Bernie Sanders, notwithstanding the wrongheadedness of his prescriptions, is showing his rivals how to focus the presidential election on the struggle of workers and middle-income families. Restoring the American Dream of the ability to thrive through labor is what's on our minds. This quality in Bernie inspires both the crowds… and me.
Hillary Clinton might yet tune in. So might another Democratic aspirant. Will a GOP contender pay attention to how the reaction to Bernie Sanders invites a coherent theme of supply side Human Capitalism? If so the 2016 election could launch America, and the world, toward a golden age. If so, Bernie Sanders will have delivered the critical assist.
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Ralph Benko is senior advisor, economics, to American Principles in Action's Gold Standard 2012 Initiative, and a contributor to he ARRA News Service. Founder of The Prosperity Caucus, he was a member of the Jack Kemp supply-side team, served in an unrelated area as a deputy general counsel in the Reagan White House. The article which first appeared in Forbes was submitted for reprint by the author.
Tags: Ralph Benko, Democrats, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, The GOP, Human Capitalism, Winnie-the-Pooh To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!
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