North Korea Wanting to Talk?

North Korea, as relayed through Russia is
apparently wantingto talk with the United States.

by Aaron Simms: Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, states that he relayed a message from North Korea to U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson during a meeting the two had yesterday in Vienna. Lavrov said, "We know that North Korea wants above all to talk to the United States about guarantees for its security. We are ready to support that, we are ready to take part in facilitating such negotiations. Our American colleagues, [including] Rex Tillerson, have heard this."

Tillerson has not responded to the news, and official U.S. policy is that North Korea has to demonstrate a real commitment to rid itself of its nuclear weapons capability before talks can occur. The North's desire to talk may be a recognition on their side that if tensions continue to escalate, the regime may very well be removed from power one way or another. Of particular interest is the following statement from The Guardian:North Korean officials have said in recent informal meetings that they are particularly concerned by the threat of a surprise 'decapitation' strike, aimed at killing the country's leaders and paralysing military command and control systems before Pyongyang could launch its missiles.If this is true, then they appear to have gotten the message from the Trump administration that a military resolution to the tensions is on the table and that they would not survive a U.S. strike.

However, North Korea appears to be continuing to hang onto the hope that the following will occur:

1. Kim Jong-un and the regime in general remain in power
2. North Korea retains its nuclear weapons capability
3. The U.S. lessens or removes its military presence in the region and stops joint exercises with South Korea and Japan

It is difficult to see how all three could remain true for North Korea. The U.S. is unlikely to let the existing regime remain a nuclear power, and will not remove military support from South Korea and Japan in the foreseeable future (most certainly not while the North remains belligerent).

While informal, unofficial discussions do happen from time to time between the U.S. and North Korea, formal talks will not occur until the North makes efforts to remove its nuclear weapons. The catch-22 is that the North is unlikely to do so until the security of its regime is ensured. Either one side needs to blink or China or Russia need to intervene to force the Kim regime to yield.

Unfortunately, the North has been trained by decades of appeasing U.S. behavior to rattle its sabres to get some concessions, such as economic aid which serves to prop up the regime. The risk they are taking is that the current U.S. climate has shifted, and the Trump administration is uninterested in continuing to play this game.

Read more analysis of the situation here.
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Aaron Simms is an author, writer, and pastor and contributing author to The Resugent which shared this article.
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