Ivory prices in China have fallen by nearly two thirds since 2014 as the country begins to completely shut down all domestic ivory trade and processing tomorrow.
A new report released in Nairobi yesterday says in early 2014, the average wholesale price of illegal ivory was $2,100 (Sh210,000 ) per kilogramme but last month had fallen to $730 (Sh73,000 ) per kilo.
China will shut all its legal ivory processing factories by tomorrow, while the retail outlets licensed to sell carvings will have to shut by end of this year.
The ban will affect China’s 34 licensed factories that carve ivory and about 130 retail outlets. Wholesale prices of black market ivory are usually at par or a little lower than those of legally traded ivory. The ban is expected to deal a critical blow to elephant poaching in Africa because China is the biggest import market of both legal and illegal ivory.
The findings are contained in Decline in the Legal Ivory Trade in China in Anticipation of a Ban, a new report compiled from research conducted in mainland China since 2015.
“The legal ivory trade in China is dying,” the authors say.
The 88-page report was produced by consultants Lucy Vigne and Esmond Martin and published by Save The Elephants, a local wildlife lobby.
It reveals that the 130 licensed outlets in China have been gradually reducing the quantity of ivory items on display for sale, and recently have been cutting prices to improve sales.
“Findings from 2015 and 2016 in China have shown that the legal ivory trade especially has been severely diminished,” Lucy says.
In Beijing by 2015, some of the main licensed retail ivory outlets were either closed at the time of the researchers’ visit due to slow sales, or vendors were replacing elephant ivory displays with mammoth ivory.
By last year, prices for ivory items were in decline, with vendors trying to offload their stocks.
As with elephant ivory, the wholesale price of mammoth ivory in China experienced a drop, falling from $1,900 per kg in 2014 to $1,400 per kg in 2015.
“The latest figure we have received since publishing this report suggests that this price has also dropped to $730 a kilo,” researcher Esmond Martin said.
WHY PRICES ARE FALLING
The decline in price was mainly attributed to China’s economic slowdown, but anti-poaching campaigns have also discouraged people from buying ivory carvings.
“Public awareness campaigns have exposed many potential buyers to the impact that buying ivory has on Africa’s elephants,” the authors say.
Will the the falling prices and shut down of legal factories and licensed outlets end poaching in Africa?
The major ivory market in China is illegal, according to data from the Elephant Trade Information System and other sources.
“After a ban on the internal ivory trade, a big question is what will happen to the illegal domestic ivory trade,” the report says.
“Will demand for illicit ivory items go up or down? Will prices rise or fall? Will carvers continue to produce ivory items in larger or smaller quantities illegally?”
Other experts say the ban may not directly end poaching because ivory in the licensed factories and retailers is not supposed to come from poached elephants.
Instead legal ivory carvers are supplied by government-controlled stockpiles that mostly built up before an international trade ban was implemented in 1989.
The ivory ban aims to send a message to the Chinese public that ivory products are now taboo.
This is intended to reduce demand and price because the illegal market needs big profits to operate, given the high risks of operating a multinational smuggling operation.
According to some estimates, more than 100,000 elephants have been wiped out in Africa over the past 10 years in a ruthless scramble for ivory.
Some Chinese investors call ivory “white gold,” while carvers and collectors call it the “organic gemstone.”
Kenya has lost close to 1,000 elephants since 2011, majority killed in private conservancies in northern Kenya.
“The impact of China’s ban will be determined by their ability to enforce the new rules and prevent illegal trade,” Lucy says.
The two Kenyan-based researchers visited Beijing and Shanghai, as well as six cities whose markets had never been surveyed before: Changzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Shenyang, Suzhou and Tianjin.
In these cities, small jewellery items were a top seller in the ivory retail shops, with pendants being the most common item and large tusks and figures found only in licensed outlets where legal master carvers operate.
MORE ILLEGAL OUTLETS. LESS STOCK
There has been increased awareness about the plight of elephants with the growing coalition of NGOs and scientists working with the international media, drumming up high level political support.
“This is a critical period for elephants,” said Iain Douglas-Hamilton, President and Founder of Save the Elephants.
“With the end of the legal ivory trade in China, the survival chances for elephants have distinctly improved. We must give credit to China for doing the right thing by closing the ivory trade.”
He added: “There is still a long way to go to end the excessive killing of elephants for ivory, but there is now greater hope for the species.”
Researchers said there is concern what will happen to the skilled carvers presently working in the licensed ivory factories workshops when they are no longer provided with ivory to carve.
The carvers and traders lament that if the government closes completely the legal ivory trade in the country (with the possible exception of genuine antiques), one of China’s traditional art forms, which is part of their cultural heritage going back many hundreds of years, will be severely affected.
“Most told us they would carve substitutes, such as wood and stone, but few said they wanted to work in mammoth ivory, unless it was very good quality,” the report says.
This was the third time the researchers went to China to study the ivory trade, since 2011.
They spent close to a month in China speaking to ivory traders, carvers, vendors, and the general public about ivory items. They also collected data to add to the baseline information obtained from the past surveys.
In the six cities surveyed, the researchers counted 3,378 items in 159 licensed and unlicensed outlets. Of these items, 2,318 were in 18 licensed outlets surveyed (out of 23 registered in total).
“Thus, there was a far greater number of illegal outlets displaying a fewer number of items compared to legal shops,” the report says.
They noted those involved in illegal ivory are not so concerned about the ban, which would not affect them as their illegal trade could continue.
Some vendors selling illegal ivory items at stalls and outlets had, however, become more cautious, keeping their items hidden in drawers.
Many are moving into online trade, which has not yet been successfully tackled by officials.
“Illegal traders are opportunists, and as long as they can get tusks from Africa they can trade, we were told,” authors say.
Kenya is one of the countries hard hit by poaching of elephants. The total elephant population within Kenya is estimated at roughly 38,000, according to the KWS annual report of 2012.
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